Advancing to a major semi-final is great. Facing Novak Djokovic when you get there, however, is not ideal.
Of all Djokovic’s accomplishments in recent years, one of the most unfathomable might be his record in the semi-finals of Grand Slam tournaments. That is bad news for his next opponent, Ben Shelton.
Djokovic has won 21 of his past 22 major semi-finals dating back to the 2015 Australian Open. His only loss during that stretch came in 2019 at Roland Garros, where Dominic Thiem needed five sets over four hours and 13 minutes to eliminate the Serbian.
Nine of the players Djokovic has defeated in major semi-finals have been inside the Top 5 in the Pepperstone ATP Rankings. Ten of his victories during the stretch have come in straight sets.
By defeating Taylor Fritz in the US Open quarter-finals, he advanced to a record 47th major semi-final. In his previous 46 appearances this deep at a Grand Slam event, Djokovic has tallied a 35-11 record (76.1%).
Most Major SFs
Player
Record
Winning %
Novak Djokovic
35-11*
76.1%
Roger Federer
31-15
67.4%
Rafael Nadal
30-8
78.9%
Jimmy Connors
15-16
48.4%
Ivan Lendl
19-9
67.9%
*Plays record 47th major semi-final Friday
According to Infosys ATP Stats, only 12 players on record have a 76 per cent or better winning percentage that high in all matches, let alone major quarter-finals. Of Djokovic’s 11 losses, eight have come against Roger Federer (4) or Rafael Nadal (4).
His opponent on Friday, Shelton, has one of the biggest serves on the ATP Tour. But pushing sets to tie-breaks at this stage of a Slam has statistically not worked out for Djokovic’s opponents over the past decade.
The 36-year-old has not lost a tie-break in a major semi-final since the 2014 US Open, where he lost to Kei Nishikori. In the seven tie-breaks Djokovic has played in major semi-finals since, he has lost a combined 24 points, or just more than three points per tie-break. That includes nine points he lost in a single tie-break against Nadal at Wimbledon in 2018.
Djokovic has lost just twice in the last four of Grand Slam events against first-time major semi-finalists — his defeat to Nishikori at Flushing Meadows nine years ago and the 2010 Wimbledon semi-finals to Tomas Berdych.