Live by the sword, die by the sword.
Daniil Medvedev gambled on extending baseline rallies into oblivion against Novak Djokovic in the US Open final on Sunday night. He held a set point in the second set, but ultimately came up well short with his master plan.
Novak Djokovic defeated Medvedev 6-3, 7-6(5), 6-3 by surviving a war of attrition that featured a staggering 54 points in the nine-plus shot rally length. The opening point of the match was 19 shots long, and two points later, they traded a bruising 23-shot rally. Djokovic won them both, and Medvedev’s intentions were crystal clear. It was going to be a battle of legs and lungs.
The rally length for the final was a lactic acid-inducing 6.3 shots. As a comparison, the average rally length was 4.4 shots in Medvedev’s semi-final victory over Carlos Alcaraz. It was just 4.2 shots for Djokovic in his semi-final victory over Ben Shelton. Medvedev averaged running 25 metres per point, while Djokovic was slightly higher at 26 metres per point. Those totals were considerably higher for both players than any of their other matches for the tournament.
Medvedev signaled from the first game that he was going to set up shop deep behind the baseline and would refuse to budge. It is extremely rare to see a match feature more points in rallies of nine or more shots than in five to eight shots, but that is precisely what Medvedev’s dogged game style produced.
Rally Length
0-4 Shots =53% (113)
5-8 Shots = 22% (47)
9+ Shots = 25% (54)
The problem for Medvedev was that Djokovic gained a significant edge in the more abundant shorter rallies.
Rally Length – Points Won
0-4 Shots: Djokovic 63/Medvedev 50
5-8 Shots: Djokovic 29/Medvedev 18
9+ Shots: Djokovic 26/Medvedev 28
In rallies up to nine shots long, Djokovic won 92 points to 68. Medvedev crafted a slim two-point advantage in points of nine or more shots, but that would never carry him to the finish line.
What Djokovic did well was adapt.
It must have felt like playing against a brick wall for the Serbian, so he took his battle to the net to keep points short and make Medvedev have to hit passing shots all evening long.
Serve & Volley Points Won
Djokovic = 20/22
Medvedev = 0/0
Net Points Won
Djokovic = 37/44
Medvedev = 16/22
It was baffling to see Medvedev fall behind on the scoreboard and not switch up strategies and swarm the net. When Medvedev lost a close five-setter in the 2019 US Open final against Rafael Nadal, he came to the net 74 times, winning 68 per cent of those points (50). He also served and volleyed 29 times, winning 76 per cent (22). Medvedev’s gamble to only come to the net half as much as Djokovic (22-44) and not serve and volley at all never gained traction.
Djokovic’s primary strategy in baseline rallies was to attack Medvedev’s forehand in back-and-forth deuce-court exchanges. It was a smart strategy that has also paid dividends against Medvedev in the past.
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Groundstroke Performance
Forehands
Djokovic: 9 winners/28 errors = -19
Medvedev: 10 winners/40 errors = -30
Backhands
Djokovic: 6 winners/29 errors = -23
Medvedev: 5 winners/32 errors = -27
It was perplexing to watch Medvedev fall further and further behind in baseline points won and not update his game plan.
Baseline Points Won
Djokovic = 48.8% (59/121)
Medvedev = 38.0% (52/137)
In the third set, Medvedev only won 27.6 per cent (8/29) of his baseline points as Djokovic finally gained some real momentum. Medvedev only came to the net six times in the third set, winning three.
The final was a brutal baseline battle that took its toll on both players. As we have seen time and time again, it was Djokovic who was the last one standing to collect the silverware.