Daniil Medvedev has been on fire the past two months, winning titles in Rotterdam, Doha, Dubai and Miami while also reaching the final at Indian Wells. The secret to his success has been simple.
Dominance in tennis is often thought of as controlling play with a particularly powerful stroke, like Rafael Nadal’s forehand or Stan Wawrinka’s backhand. But Medvedev, the first-placed player in the Pepperstone ATP Live Race To Turin, has commanded the action in recent weeks by using another weapon: consistency.
According to statistics provided by Tennis Data Innovations, Medvedev has thrived not on power and spin, but by putting the ball between the lines over and over again. Medvedev has laid down a challenge to his opponents: I will not miss. What will you do to stop me?
During his past five tournaments, only Carlos Alcaraz in the BNP Paribas Open final has managed to break down the Medvedev wall. The 27-year-old has won 24 of his past 25 matches behind jaw-dropping consistency.
Forehands: Medvedev vs. The Field (2023 Rotterdam, Doha, Dubai, Indian Wells & Miami)
Stat
Daniil Medvedev
Field (5 Events Combined)
% FH In
88.4%
85%
Avg FH Out/Match
11
15.7
Medvedev has made 88.4 per cent of his forehand groundstrokes (not including returns) compared to 85 per cent for the field at those five tournaments. A difference of 3.4 per cent might not seem like much, but it ultimately has proven critical.
Medvedev has missed an average of 11 forehands per match compared to nearly 16 for his opponents. Matches at the highest level often come down to a few key points, so every extra mistake counts.
Opponents have hit their forehands nearly one mile per hour harder than Medvedev (76.1mph to 75.2 mph) and with more spin (2,784 rpm to 2,467 rpm), but consistency has proven more important.
The gap has been even wider elsewhere. Medvedev made 92 per cent of his backhand groundstrokes at the aforementioned five tournaments compared to 85.9 per cent for the field, missing just 9.5 backhands per match (12.4 for opponents).
Backhands: Medvedev vs. The Field
Stat
Daniil Medvedev
Field (5 Events Combined)
% BH In
92%
85.9%
Avg BH Out/Match
9.5
12.4
Commentators and fans alike often discuss Medvedev’s deep return position. While some players step in to take a crack at second-serve returns, the World No. 5 remains well behind the baseline. The results have been inarguable.
Medvedev has missed an average of just two second-serve returns per match during his hot streak compared to 3.9 for the field. Not only has he rarely missed, but the 6’6” righty has also hit those shots significantly harder than opponents (75.2 mph to 71 mph).
Standing deep in the court allows Medvedev to take a bigger swing at the ball. Not only does he give himself more time to hit the ball harder, but he almost never misses those critical returns.
Second-Serve Returns: Medvedev vs. The Field
Stat
Daniil Medvedev
Field (5 Events Combined)
% 2nd-Serve Ret In
90.7%
83.3%
Avg 2nd-Serve Ret Out/Match
2
3.9
It has not been a case of Medvedev locking down against lesser opponents, either. In the final of the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships against Top 10 star Andrey Rublev, Medvedev made an astonishing 100 per cent of his backhand groundstrokes (not including returns) and 100 per cent of his second-serve returns.
Rublev is one of the biggest ball-strikers on the ATP Tour, especially on the forehand side. Medvedev kept his cool and put up his defensive wall. It was not a small sample size. Medvedev made all 61 of his backhand groundstrokes in that match according to the data.
In the Miami Open presented by Itau final against Jannik Sinner, another of the Tour’s biggest hitters, Medvedev made 88 per cent of his forehand groundstrokes, 94 per cent of his backhand groundstrokes and 92.6 per cent of his second-serve returns.
Medvedev’s magic has not been in the sizzle of flashy winners — and he has hit his fair share of those — but in his consistency. Will he be able to maintain that during the clay-court season, starting this week at the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters? The third seed will certainly try.
“You can’t change what you do in nine months or a year drastically,” Medvedev said of the surface change during his pre-tournament press conference. “So I have to find a good balance where I still play my game, with a little change, with some shots in the right moment.”
For the most part, that means staying consistent. Medvedev begins his clay season on Wednesday against Italian wild card Lorenzo Sonego.
Editor’s Note: Data comes from automated ball and player tracking data.