Second serves to the forehand.

Players typically stay away from this higher-risk strategy and kick the second serve to the less potent backhand return.

Not Novak Djokovic. Not by a long shot.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of 41 matches against right-handed opponents this season shows that Djokovic actually prefers to hit second serves to the forehand wing. By going against the grain, he collects more second-serve aces, extracts significantly more return errors and wins a higher percentage of second-serve points overall.

Opponents are sitting on a heavy kick to the backhand return. A hard slider to the forehand is what comes at them more often than not. Djokovic hit 55 per cent (382/690) of his second serves at the forehand corners versus backhand corners in both service boxes, while opponents only hit 26 per cent (164/622) to the forehand corners against him. Interestingly, Djokovic served more to the backhand return against left-handers.

Djokovic is leading the Tour in 2023 with second-serve points won at 57.91 per cent (816/1409). It’s his third-highest season total after 2015 (60.2%) and 2013 (59.61%). Directing second serves out wide in the Deuce court and down the T in the Ad court is powering these Tour-leading match metrics as much as anything else.

Deuce Court: Second Serves Wide To The Forehand Return
The numbers that show the difference in how well Djokovic utilises the wide second serve compared to his opponents are dramatic.

Second Serves: Deuce Court Wide

Direction – Deuce Court Wide 
Novak Djokovic 
Opponents

Made
174
60

Won
75% (130)
50% (30)

Aces
4
1

Return Errors Extracted
50
11

% Return Errors Extracted
29%
18%

The performance gap is staggering. Djokovic goes to this location almost three times as much as his opponents (174-60) and has won 100 more points (130-30). He extracts an error when targeting this location 29 per cent (50/174) of the time. His opponents only benefit from a return error 18 per cent (11/60) of the time.

One of Djokovic’s superpowers appears hidden in plain sight.

Ad Court: Second Serves T To The Forehand Return
Serving second serves down the T in the Ad court also clearly catches opponents off guard.

Direction – Ad Court T
Novak Djokovic
Opponents

Made
208
104

Won
70% (146)
50% (52)

Aces
13
1

Return Errors Extracted
41
18

% Return Errors Extracted
20%
17%

Djokovic collected 13 aces to this specific location, while opponents only managed a solitary ace. Djokovic won precisely 100 more points (130-30) than his opponents in the Deuce court out wide and won almost 100 more (146-52) with the slider down the T in the Ad court.

At some stage, you would think opponents should pick up on this surprise serve and shut it down. But Djokovic has been employing variations of this strategy for several seasons, and he keeps taking it to new levels. The reasons why it works so well are four-fold.

1. Djokovic wins the mental game of surprising his opponent. He reads the opponent’s mind better than they do of him. He knows when they are not expecting it.
2. The larger size of the forehand return backswing can be immediately attacked.
3. He hits this specific serve considerably faster than his regular kick second serve to the backhand. Multiple speeds to multiple directions create confusion in opponents’ minds.
4. He receives more Serve +1 forehands. He hit 50 per cent (473/945) Serve +1 forehands in these matches behind second serves, winning 57 per cent (271/473). Opponents only hit 44 per cent (514/1171) Serve +1 forehands, also winning just 44 per cent (227/514).

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Djokovic Second-Serve Speed
Djokovic defeated Taylor Fritz 6-1, 6-4, 6-4 in the quarter-finals of the 2023 US Open. Djokovic’s average second serve was only 94.2 mph for the match (Fritz 100.4 mph), but the Serbian hit his fastest second serve at a speedy 117 mph. When he serves to the forehand return wide in the Deuce court or down the T in the Ad court, he hits it at a “hybrid” speed, roughly halfway between a first serve and a second serve.

In the opening game against Fritz, he hit a 108 mph second serve down the T in the Ad court. In his next service game, he started it with a 109 mph second serve out wide. Serving at set point in the opening set, he clocked a 106 mph second-serve ace down the T in the Ad court. Djokovic hit 10 second serves for the match above 100 mph, with nine of them going to his favourite Deuce court wide and Ad court T locations.

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Djokovic’s favourite second-serve location appears to be a mystery to his opponents. He backs himself against their perceived strength by taking advantage of multiple weaknesses.